Analiza energetskog sustava Republike Hrvatske pomoću više-scenarijskog pristupa

Cerovac, Tin (2013) Analiza energetskog sustava Republike Hrvatske pomoću više-scenarijskog pristupa. = Advanced System Analysis Using Scenario Approach - the Case Study of Croatia. Master's thesis (Bologna) , Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Fakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje, UNSPECIFIED. Mentor: Duić, Neven.

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Abstract (Croatian)

Iako je od donošenja nacionalne energetske strategije prošlo nekoliko godina, smjer razvoja hrvatskog energetskog sustava ostaje aktualna tema. Hrvatski energetski sustav je trenutno visoko ovisan o uvozu, a valja imati na umu i obveze prema implementaciji obnovljivih izvora energije, kao i ogranicenu dostupnost energenata. Ovaj rad proucava osam scenarija – tri scenarija predložena energetskom strategijom, jedan predložen indikativnim srednjorocnim razvojnim planom HEP ODS-a, kao i cetiri alternativna razvojna scenarija koja predlažu intenzivnu izgradnju hidro, vjetro i solarnih elektrana u Hrvatskoj. Proracuni su provedeni u EnergyPLA\N modelu, temeljeni na dugorocnim predvidanjima potrošnje energije, sa 2009. kao baznom godinom i pogledom koji seže do 2030. godine. Svaki od osam predloženih scenarija promatran je kroz tri podscenarija, koji opisuju razlicite hidrološke uvjete, uz analizu proizvodnje, troškova, emisija CO2 i drugih relevantnih parametara, a nakon proracuna scenarija, postavljena je analiza utjecaja pojacane penetracije vjetroelektrana, kao jednog od vodecih OIE, na pojedine scenarije. Rezultati ovog rada mogu se upotrebljavati kao orijentir prilikom planiranja buduceg razvoja hrvatskog energetskog sustava.

Abstract

Even a few years after the national Energy Strategy has been passed, direction for development of the Croatian energy system remains a booming topic. Croatian energy system is currently highly import-dependent and obligations toward renewable energy sources implementation, as well as limited potential of available energy sources, need to be considered. This paper studies eight scenarios - three proposed by the Strategy, one proposed by the Indicative medium-term development plan of Croatia’s TSO, and four alternative scenarios that propose extensive construction of hydro, wind and solar power plants in Croatia. Calculations have been conducted in the EnergyPLAN model based on modelled long term energy demand predictions, with 2009 as the base year and a scope ranging until the year 2030. Each of the eight proposed scenarios is observed trough three sub-scenarios, describing various hydrological conditions while analyzing production, costs, CO2 emissions and other relevant parameters. After the initial calculations, additional analysis of intensive wind power penetration, as one of the leading RES technologies has been conducted. The results of this study can be used as a reference for further development of the Croatian energy system.

Item Type: Thesis (Master's thesis (Bologna))
Uncontrolled Keywords: EnergyPLAN; energetsko planiranje; više-scenarijski pristup; hidrološki podscenariji; penetracija vjetroelektrana
Keywords (Croatian): EnergyPLAN; energy planning; multiple-scenario approach; hydrological sub-scenarios; penetration of wind power
Divisions: 500 Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment > 510 Power Engineering and Energy Management Chair
Date Deposited: 22 Sep 2014 18:00
Last Modified: 16 Oct 2015 12:50
URI: http://repozitorij.fsb.hr/id/eprint/2549

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