Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

Pukšec, Tomislav and Krajačić, Goran and Lulić, Zoran and Mathiesen, Brian Vad and Duić, Neven (2013) Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector. = Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector. Energy, 57. pp. 169-176. ISSN 0360-5442. Vrsta rada: ["eprint_fieldopt_article_type_article" not defined]. Kvartili JCR: Q1 (2013). Točan broj autora: 5.

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The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half.

Item Type: Article (["eprint_fieldopt_article_type_article" not defined])
Keywords (Croatian): Electrification; Energy demand prediction; Energy demands; Energy efficiency improvements; Influencing mechanisms; Modal split; Personal vehicles; Transport sectors; Computer simulation; Energy efficiency; Energy utilization; Fleet operations; Forecasting; Electric utilities; bottom-up approach; comparative study; electrification; energy efficiency; European Union; forecasting method; future prospect; long-term change; Croatia
Subjects: TECHNICAL SCIENCE > Mechanical Engineering
Divisions: 400 Department of IC Engines and Mechanical Handling Equipment > 410 Chair of IC Engines and Motor Vehicles
500 Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment > 510 Power Engineering and Energy Management Chair
Indexed in Web of Science: Yes
Indexed in Current Contents: Yes
Quartiles: Q1 (2013)
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2015 07:51
Last Modified: 19 Feb 2016 09:32

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