Energy demand modelling and GHG emission reduction: case study Croatia

Pukšec, Tomislav and Mathiesen, Brian Vad and Novosel, Tomislav and Duić, Neven (2013) Energy demand modelling and GHG emission reduction: case study Croatia. = Energy demand modelling and GHG emission reduction: case study Croatia. In: 8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems – SDEWES Conference, 22-27.09.2013, Dubrovnik, Hrvatska.

Energy_demand_modelling_and_GHG_emission_reduction_case_study_Croatia.pdf - Accepted Version Jezik dokumenta:English

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In the light of new European energy-climate package and its measures for increasing security of supply, decreasing the impact on environment and stimulating sustainable development with special emphasis on job creation and regional growth, Croatia as a future EU member state, needs to reconsider and develop new energy policy towards energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, in order to comply with all of the presented tasks. Planning future energy demand, considering various policy options like regulation, fiscal and financial measures, becomes one of the crucial issues of future national energy strategy. This paper analyses Croatian long term energy demand and its effect on the future national GHG emissions. For that purpose the national energy demand model was constructed (NeD model). The model is comprised out of six modules each representing one sector, following Croatian national energy balance ; industry, transport, households, services, agriculture and construction. For three of the modules (industry, transport and households) previously developed long term energy demand models were used, while for the remaining three new models were constructed. As an additional feature, new GHG module was assembled and added to the NeD model covering all six sectors and calculating its emissions. The model is based on bottom up approach, where data was available, which combines and process large number of input data at the end use level. NeD model was used to present different future GHG mitigation paths, based on the implementation of various energy policies. Results obtained in this paper were also compared to Croatian National Energy Strategy for the years 2020 and 2030. It was shown that if already implemented policies are properly taken into account the actual final energy demand for 2030 will be 43% lower than forecast by the Croatian National Energy Strategy.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Lecture)
Keywords (Croatian): energy planning, future energy demand, GHG emissions, energy policy
Subjects: TECHNICAL SCIENCE > Mechanical Engineering
Divisions: 500 Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment > 510 Power Engineering and Energy Management Chair
Indexed in Web of Science: No
Indexed in Current Contents: No
Date Deposited: 07 Apr 2016 09:45
Last Modified: 25 Apr 2016 15:45

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